This report, released by Oxfam International in April, provides a timely reminder of why the upcoming climate negotiations are really important. It is not about the politics of reaching an agreement; it is about trying to prevent the worst case climate change scenarios from occurring.
One anticipated sticking point in the negotiations is the extent to which adaptation and mitigation assistance must be provided to developing countries . There have been proposals for a climate fund to help poorer countries protect themselves from the worst climate impacts as well as discussions around technology transfers to help growing economies achieve their growth aims in a low carbon way.
This report reminds us of the scale of potential human impacts as a result of climate change on much of the world’s population, but specifically on the poor. For instance, currently in wealthier nations, on average 23 people die in any given disaster, in poorer countries this increases to 1,052.
The report identifies a number of reasons why the world’s poor are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change:
- Many live in urban slums built on precarious land, less likely to withstand climate related weather events;
- Increased pressure on agricultural lands due to drought, population density and increasing demand for meat and dairy from emerging economies are likely to lead to food scarcity;
- Up to one billion people may need to relocate due to climate impacts, the poor are the least resourced to do so.
These issues are compounded by the absence of social safety nets in many of these countries.
Generally speaking there have been some positive trends in our ability to manage the impacts of natural disasters. In countries such as Bangladesh the number of people killed in cyclones has decreased. This has occurred, not due to a decrease in the incidence or severity of cyclones, but because the response has improved. The question is whether there are the resources to maintain this response as the number and intensity of incidents increases.
There is already a fine line for humanitarian organisations, the report argues, between directly providing aid most effectively and doing this in a way that does not allow local authorities to abdicate their responsibilities and reducing the likelihood of basic services being restored in the future.
Efforts must focus on building local capacity to help prevent, prepare for and respond to what are expected to be more frequent events. The report identifies a number of activities that must be undertaken to achieve this.
Building state responsibility and empowering affected people
- Governments need to reinforce local capacity to reduce people’s vulnerability and donors and others need to help them in doing this.
- Local communities must be empowered to demand actions to help safeguard their lives and to help them prepare for disasters.
- The international community needs to use mediation and diplomacy to push for assistance.
Reducing vulnerability
- National governments should adopt risk reduction measures, such as early warning systems; invest in sustainable livelihoods that provide income and food security; improve urban planning to take into consideration climate risk; and make investments to reduce public-health risks.
- Developed nations should take the lead on cutting greenhouse gas emissions to help mitigate some of the worst case scenarios. The report argues that it is based not only on their capacity to pay, but also acknowledges their responsibility for emitting the majority of greenhouse gases.
Improving international assistance
- Frameworks need to be assessed to ensure that aid is implemented according to need rather than those disasters that generate the most publicity. The delivery of this aid should also be mindful of particular vulnerabilities, including age and gender. This applies to both OECD and non-OECD nations.
- Aid levels on the whole will need to increase with the report calling for humanitarian aid to be increased to $42 billion a year as a first step.
- Individual non-government and United Nations organisations must support a more co-ordinated international response.
The report takes a number of the issues core to global poverty and development discussions and explores how climate change is likely to exacerbate them if we fail to respond appropriately.
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